A World Without Pharma: A Stark Reality

 A dialogue between Jack & Baby Boomer, characters of the ‘Economics Powered by Life’ network.

Jack is a tall, athletic, and charming teenager, who feels that nobody understands him, until he meets Econ. Jack has an opinion of his own and is passionate about sports and music, with an interest in history.

Baby Boomer is a seasoned storyteller and life connoisseur, seamlessly blending wisdom with an acceptance of life's imperfections. He is excitedly on the hunt for the youthful energy that breathes new life into every moment.

 

February 16th, 2024

In this era of relentless innovation and tech advancements, the thought of a world without pharmaceuticals seems unthinkable. Yet, Jack and Baby Boomer are doing just that, picturing a reality where Pharma is a concept of the past. They push the boundaries further, imagining medications that come with zero side effects. And as if that's not enough, they dream up the ultimate pill, one for the ages. It's a lot to digest, so take a moment, relax, and dive into this world of near fantasy with them.

 

A World Without Pharma: A Stark Reality

In this alternate universe, the absence of pharmaceutical companies would unravel the fabric of modern healthcare. Antibiotics, vaccines, pain relievers, and life-saving medications would not be available. The consequences? A stark return to a time when minor infections could mean death, chronic conditions were untreatable, and epidemics and pandemics raged unchecked.

“Centuries ago, hygienic standards were as good as non-existent, right?” Jack said. “Could that make a difference?”

“Interesting observation Jack”, Baby Boomer responded. “Though I read a lot about health and healthy standards, I don’t have a medical background. Anyway, enhanced hygiene practices like regular handwashing and sanitization of surfaces could lessen the spread of illnesses such as common cold and influenza. Also, public health policies that prioritize clean water access, waste management and food safety, could prevent outbreaks of diseases like cholera and salmonella poisoning, which historically caused significant morbidity and mortality.”

“What about diseases like cancer or diabetes,” Jack wanted to know.

“I was getting there Jack. Despite the positive aspects of enhanced hygiene practices, the absence of pharmaceuticals would leave significant gaps in healthcare that hygiene couldn’t bridge. For instance, antibiotics and vaccines are critical in managing and preventing infectious diseases. Without them, outbreaks of bacterial infections would be harder to control, even with optimal hygiene. Your question about cancer or diabetes refers to what they call in the medical world ‘non-communicable diseases’ or NDCs. Without pharmaceuticals, treating these conditions would become exceedingly difficult. It would lead to increased mortality and morbidity rates. Did you know that before the discovery of antibiotics, simple bacterial infections were often death sentences? The introduction of penicillin in the early 20th century marked a turning point in medical history, saving countless lives. Without such discoveries, surgeries would be perilously risky, and treatments for diseases like tuberculosis or pneumonia would be non-existent.”

“I see. You’re talking about mortality and morbidity. Could you explain me the difference?”, Jack asked Baby Boomer.

“Mortality refers to death, while morbidity refers to disease of illness. Let me give you an example”, Baby Boomer gestured. “If 100 out of 10,000 people in a village die from heart disease in a year, the mortality rate for heart disease is 1%, which is 100 out of 10,000 people. If in that same village 500 people are diagnosed with heart disease, the morbidity rate is equal to 5%, which is 500 out of 10,000 people living from that village.”

Baby Boomer further explained Jack that vaccines offer another glimpse into the indispensable role of Pharma.

“You mean like the smallpox and polio?”

“Exactly Jack! Smallpox has been eradicated and polio nearly eliminated. These big wins aren't just about getting better from sickness; they're huge steps forward for all of us because they saved billions of people from really bad diseases. You know, a vaccine isn't a cure, but something that stops you from getting sick in the first place.”

 Baby Boomer saw Jack deep in thought about medicine and its side effects. Jack thought about his aunt who got really weak and lost her hair and appetite after taking chemo for six weeks. He was curious if, with all our smart brains and computers, making medicine that doesn't cause any harm is just a fantasy.

 

The Utopian Ideal: Side Effect-Free Medication

“Baby Boomer, I have a question. Do you have any idea how real or surreal it would be to have medicines without side effects?”

“What can I say,” Baby Boomer sighed. “Aiming for medicines with zero side effects is kind of like chasing a dream. You see, everyone's body is unique, and how a drug works in one person can be totally different in another. So, even though scientists are constantly working on making medications safer and cutting down on those nasty side effects, reaching a place where there are absolutely zero side effects? That's super tough, as far as I can tell! Right now, it's more about getting as close as we can to that ideal, rather than actually hitting the bullseye.

“But imagine we hit the bullseye, what then,” Jack asked.

Baby Boomer was chewing on this question, then came up with the following reflection: “Well, if we somehow nailed it, creating meds without any side effects, that would be groundbreaking! It means treatments would be way easier to handle, no worrying about the downsides. People would probably be more open to taking their meds, improving health outcomes across the board. It would be a huge win for healthcare, for sure.”

“And what would be the impact for the pharma sector?”, Jack insisted.

“Oh, for the pharma sector? It would be revolutionary. Companies could see a surge in trust and demand for their products. It would likely boost innovation, as everyone would want to develop these flawless meds. Plus, it could reshape the entire market, making medicines that work really well without any bad side effects. It would be a game-changer for sure, attracting more investment and possibly making healthcare more efficient and patient-friendly.”

Jack was not done questioning. “Do you think humans would start to live healthier or on the contrary, unhealthier?”

“Well, I guess if medicines had no side effects, there's a chance people might lean a bit towards unhealthier lifestyles, thinking they've got a safety net. You know, the idea that "there's a pill for that" could make some less cautious about their health choices. But, it's also possible that the advancements could encourage a healthier lifestyle, with folks feeling more optimistic about medical science and its ability to support their well-being without drawbacks. It could really go either way, depending on how society adapts to and integrates these advancements. Anyway, this is really very utopian talk we’re having here. Anything else you wanna know Jack?”

“Yeah, what about the traditional healers in Africa and Latin America who've been using all kinds of plants and herbs for ages to fix different health problems? Is the Pharma industry tapping into any of that wisdom?”

“That’s a very legit question Jack. You know, the other day I read that around 40% of pharmaceutical products today draw from nature and traditional knowledge, including drugs such as aspirin and childhood cancer treatments. I guess that covers your question, don’t you think?”

“I have one more question before going to our next subject. Do these plants and herbs come with side-effects?”

“Oh, absolutely. Just like conventional medicines, these natural plants and herbs can have side effects too. It all depends on how they're used, how much is taken, and the person's own body. Some can be pretty mild, but others might be more serious, especially if mixed with other medications or if someone has certain health conditions. So, let's not act like we know it all, okay? It's always smarter to talk to a healthcare professional before getting into any of that stuff."

 

The Pill of the Century

Jack's thinking about a pill, just a regular-looking capsule, but inside, it's got the secret to living for 200 years. It sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie, right? But this idea, as wild as it is, gets Jack really thinking about all the big questions it brings up—like what it means for right and wrong, how society would change, and what it would mean for each of us personally if such an incredible breakthrough were real.

“Imagine all people on this planet have access to such a pill? What’s your first reaction?”, Jack asked Baby Boomer.

“Wow, living for 200 years? My first thought? Imagine the career changes you'd go through! But then, think about retirement plans—do they even exist anymore? And birthdays... would we celebrate every decade instead of every year? It's mind-boggling yet kind of thrilling to imagine the possibilities and the challenges!”

“Ok, well let’s start with the challenges. What would be the biggest challenges in your opinion and why?” Jack was wondering.

“No Jack, first I have a counterquestion for you. What exactly do you mean by living for 200 years?”

“I’m imagining experiencing history in real-time, watching the world evolve dramatically across two centuries. Imagine witnessing new technologies emerge, cities transform, cultures shift, all while maintaining your youth and vitality. It's like being a time traveler in your own life, with the wisdom of age but the health to explore, learn, and adapt to an ever-changing world. That’s more or less the picture I have in mind.”

“So, Baby Boomer says, “thinking about everyone living for 200 years, the big hurdles? Well, society itself would have to change big time. Imagine trying to keep jobs fresh and economies buzzing when people work for over a hundred years. And then there's the personal side of things—keeping your mind sharp and staying motivated for two whole centuries. Plus, we've got to think about our planet. It's gotta support us all living way longer, putting a real squeeze on resources. We'd need some serious innovation and a whole new way of looking at our lives and the environment.”

“What do you think the biggest challenge would be?” Jack insisted.

“Honestly, I think the biggest challenge would be ensuring mental and emotional well-being over such an extended lifespan,” Baby Boomer replied. “Keeping yourself mentally stimulated, emotionally fulfilled, and socially connected for 200 years would require incredible resilience and adaptability. It's not just about living longer; it's about living well, maintaining a sense of purpose, and continually finding joy and meaning in an ever-evolving world.”

“I thought you would say something else; I thought you would say overpopulation.”, Jack teasingly replied.”

“Ah, I see where you're coming from. Overpopulation is indeed a massive challenge. To give you an idea, based on the current annual global birth rate of approximately 1%, my GPT friend made a very rough calculation, estimating global population to be approximately 10.3 billion by 2050, some 17 billion by 2100 and 28 billion by 2150.”

“So, with today’s global population around 8 billion people, how much surface does that represent,” Jack wanted to know.

“If you put all people together, giving each person half a square meter of space, this would be the equivalent of 4 billion square meters. To give you an idea, Moscow has an area of about 2,500 square kilometers, which is 2.5 billion square meters, meaning the space needed for 8 billion people would be slightly more than the surface area of Moscow,” Baby Boomer argued.

“WOW, it seems like we’re not overpopulated at all, don't you think? That really puts your biggest concern into perspective and also echoes what Elon Musk has said about underpopulation being the real issue, rather than overpopulation.”

“What did he say about it,” Jack?

 “That the declining birth rates and aging populations in many parts of the world could lead to economic and social issues, such as labor shortages, decreased innovation and challenges in supporting an aging population with a shrinking workforce.”

“And what makes you understand my biggest concern,” Baby Boomer curiously asked.

“Well, that without purpose we would drive ourselves and each other nuts. Imagine me at the age of 95 making a transfer to Real Madrid because I’m still in an excellent physical shape, and of course I have the talent to compete at the highest level.”

“That's an insane situation indeed. You know, it highlights that there's so much more to consider than just the numbers. We're talking about the impact on basic needs like water, food, housing, energy, and jobs. How do we adapt education for such long lifespans? How can we keep our lives meaningful and engaging for 200 years? And what about the ethical implications? It's really a lot to swallow, even as a hypothetical scenario,” Baby Boomer reflected.

The dialogue made Jack and Baby Boomer understand that their fantasies raised more questions than they could possibly resolve. That life should be at the heart of economics. That the concept of a life-extending pill underscores the importance of prioritizing human well-being, health and quality of life in economic decisions and policies. That it serves as a reminder that economic systems and practices should be there to support and enhance the lives of individuals. That it’s much more than just financial growth or productivity at the expense of health and sustainability. That it harmonizes with our ecological systems, promotes health and well-being, and values life above all. Many more dialogues may follow, but for now, they called it a day.

In the meantime, Jack was already pondering about a next question: What would happen to Pharma if everybody was healthy?